Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf972…75a5 other 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$22
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$19
other 27% −$26
sports 18% −$13
crypto 11% −$1
economics 4% −$4
world 4% −$4
culture 4% −$3
finance 2% −$4
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 72 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 153 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 161 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 141
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage99d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $107 −$1 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 16 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $268 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $230 −$4 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $345 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $201 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $67 −$2 -4%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 04 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $291 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $522 −$5 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $136 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $249 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $251 −$2 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $115 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $56 2h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 2h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 9h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 94¢ $46 10h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 96¢ $48 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 24h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 24h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 29h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $27 30h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 35h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $52 35h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $52 41h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 42h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 47h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $64 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $50 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $51 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.50 · official $55.50 (match) · 700 history records