Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf971…c417 crypto 384 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,302 (+10%) realized +$5,302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%185W / 199L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day129.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,165
7 days+$4,443
14 days+$3,969
30 days+$4,731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,731
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 43% +1.8%
≤30d 384 +3.5% -6.3% 48% 45% +0.6%
≤90d 384 +3.5% -6.3% 48% 45% +0.6%
all 384 +3.5% -6.3% 48% 45% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 45% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 45% -9.1%
15% -23.5% 44% -17.8%
20% -31.0% 42% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$97 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses185 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 384
History coverage21d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day129.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 384 Trades
no open positions (161 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$60 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$30 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$84 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$69 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$32 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$57 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$41 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $173 +$144 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $146 −$144 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$58 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$59 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$55 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$27 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$93 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$13 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $660 +$516 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$17 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $195 +$205 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $160 −$152 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $144 −$137 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $142 −$136 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $135 −$133 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $163 +$150 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $129 −$69 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $851 +$913 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $372 −$369 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $120 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $554 +$496 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$30 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $770 +$830 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $273 −$272 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $83 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $78 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $72 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $64 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2919 history records