Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf971…0a57 sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$10,003 (-18%) realized −$8,848 · open −$1,155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 43L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day142.2pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$189
other 25% −$660
sports 22% +$49
world 17% $0
weather 2% +$230
tech 1% −$20
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.5% +7.2% 50% 50% +29.2%
≤30d 80 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 31% -6.4%
≤90d 80 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 31% -6.4%
all 80 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 31% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 31% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 28% -15.4%
15% -8.1% 22% -23.6%
20% -17.1% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$68 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$3,490
Realized−$8,848
Unrealized−$1,155
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions124
Markets (closed)80 / 118
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$473
Trades / day142.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 124 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $618 $620 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $395 $384 −$11 (-3%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 39¢ 30¢ $377 $283 −$94 (-25%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $252 $248 −$4 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 87¢ $210 $211 +$1 (+0%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $151 $153 +$1 (+1%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 67¢ 51¢ $200 $152 −$48 (-24%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $150 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? No 40¢ 38¢ $148 $142 −$6 (-4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $116 $107 −$9 (-8%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 53¢ 50¢ $92 $87 −$6 (-6%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $92 $80 −$12 (-13%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 23¢ $177 $68 −$109 (-61%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $102 $52 −$49 (-48%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 39¢ 15¢ $116 $45 −$71 (-61%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 99¢ $42 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 36¢ 29¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-18%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $49 $38 −$11 (-22%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $69 $35 −$33 (-48%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $105 $35 −$70 (-67%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $41 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Dune 3 7¢ 13¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+81%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $49 $31 −$18 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 24 $88 +$205 +232%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $508 +$89 +18%
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $32 −$25 -76%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $625 +$251 +40%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $137 +$14 +10%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $1,289 +$23 +2%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $704 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$6 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$24 +123%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $535 +$17 +3%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $1,177 −$224 -19%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $631 −$41 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $181 −$88 -49%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $250 −$181 -73%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $538 −$37 -7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $297 −$173 -58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $436 −$27 -6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,156 +$8 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $499 +$9 +2%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $365 +$369 +101%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $530 −$184 -35%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $132 +$18 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2,327 +$56 +2%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Jun 12 $103 −$67 -65%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $397 −$69 -17%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,239 +$20 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $249 +$255 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 −$10 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$15 -42%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 09 $156 −$122 -78%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 3 Chile? Jun 09 $3 +$70 +2281%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2,538 −$105 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $188 +$282 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $222 −$33 -15%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $109 +$52 +47%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $105 +$16 +15%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $289 +$96 +33%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $159 −$5 -3%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $868 +$64 +7%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 07 $250 +$83 +33%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $757 +$210 +28%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $590 −$145 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $36 2m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $95 3m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $40 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 7m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $37 9m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $9 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $60 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $168 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $170 17m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $251 26m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $79 33m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $110 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $107 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $153 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $76 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $249 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $77 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $123 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,489.51 · official $3,476.87 (match) · 3500 history records