Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F9 0xf96f…1f5c crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$589 (+9%) realized +$1,218 · open −$629
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$197
14 days+$197
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$609
crypto 31% +$1,734
tech 13% +$70
sports 12% −$57
politics 5% −$300
economics 4% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +97.0% +78.3% 100% 100% +78.3%
≤30d 1 +97.0% +78.3% 100% 100% +78.3%
≤90d 8 +10.4% -0.1% 38% 38% +96.3%
all 30 +7.2% -3.0% 47% 47% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 47% +20.1%
10% -12.3% 40% +8.6%
15% -20.8% 40% -1.9%
20% -28.5% 40% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +117% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$103 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$2,455
Realized+$1,218
Unrealized−$629
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage148d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $1,320 $738 −$582 (-44%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 24¢ 24¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 28¢ 37¢ $200 $267 +$67 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $381 $252 −$129 (-34%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 68¢ 81¢ $186 $222 +$36 (+19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 46¢ 43¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-6%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $97 $105 +$8 (+9%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 9? May 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? May 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? May 09 $114 −$108 -95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 09 $420 +$1,543 +367%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 06 $274 +$326 +119%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 12 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Tesla reach $465 in February? Mar 12 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 06 $24 −$24 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $49 +$49 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $58 −$57 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 05 $100 +$124 +124%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 05 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 1PM ET Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 05 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 05 $33 +$66 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 05 $88 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 03 $35 +$65 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 03 $85 +$65 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 03 $32 +$67 +209%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 03 $114 +$186 +163%
Will Tesla reach $495 in January? Feb 03 $438 +$62 +14%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Jan 27 $289 −$289 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $298 −$298 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 7h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 15¢ $155 9d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 50¢ $203 9d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $204 25d
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? BUY Anthropic 68¢ $188 26d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $309 26d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $206 26d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 18¢ $258 27d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 22¢ $258 36d
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 37d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 64¢ $203 37d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 9? BUY No 5¢ $17 41d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 9? BUY No 5¢ $0 41d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 9? BUY No 5¢ $0 41d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 9? BUY No 5¢ $8 41d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 41d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 41d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY Yes 18¢ $114 41d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,552 41d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $411 44d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $601 44d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 29¢ $11 49d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 29¢ $138 49d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 69d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 69d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 69d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 69d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,454.76 · official $2,454.76 (match) · 171 history records