Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf96d…3a1e other 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,178 (+7%) realized +$2,178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%108W / 95L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$470
7 days+$634
14 days+$668
30 days+$558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$917
sports 10% +$1,117
world 2% +$60
crypto 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 59% -2.7%
≤30d 33 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 55% -4.1%
≤90d 107 -8.3% -17.1% 52% 52% -0.3%
all 203 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 52% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 52% -3.5%
10% -18.9% 45% -12.7%
15% -26.7% 36% -21.1%
20% -33.9% 29% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$76 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses108 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage141d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $283 +$178 +63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $416 +$66 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $505 +$72 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$13 -69%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $861 +$303 +35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $391 −$136 -35%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $430 +$59 +14%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $249 +$186 +74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$34 -44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,318 +$158 +12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,124 +$193 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $234 +$179 +77%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $804 +$227 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,563 −$759 -49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$63 +246%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$30 +43%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $138 −$95 -69%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $87 −$40 -46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $196 −$58 -30%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $26 +$29 +113%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 +$26 +53%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 −$44 -88%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $300 +$117 +39%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $132 −$84 -63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $149 +$51 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $188 +$214 +114%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $341 +$260 +76%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $24 +$26 +105%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $324 +$55 +17%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $196 +$57 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $60 +$41 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $607 +$216 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $461 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $283 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $482 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $415 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $577 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $505 33h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 33h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,164 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $405 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $304 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 55¢ $255 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $390 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $489 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $429 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $435 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $248 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,476 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,317 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records