Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf96d…20be sports 306 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,325 (-22%) realized −$4,399 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%70W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$645est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days−$207
14 days−$358
30 days−$601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,663
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -53.9% -58.3% 29% 29% -51.2%
≤30d 39 -48.8% -53.6% 21% 21% -43.8%
≤90d 306 -31.5% -38.0% 23% 22% -33.0%
all 306 -31.5% -38.0% 23% 22% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 22% -33.0%
10% -44.0% 21% -39.4%
15% -49.4% 18% -45.3%
20% -54.3% 17% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$47 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$4,399
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses70 / 236
Est. fees paid−$645
Open positions1
Markets (closed)306 / 306
History coverage65d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 18¢ 30¢ $107 $182 +$74 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ostrava: Dalibor Svrcina vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Franziska Sziedat Jun 19 $67 −$65 -98%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi Jun 19 $171 +$55 +32%
ITF Dinard: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Lisa Claeys Jun 19 $98 +$30 +31%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $120 −$117 -98%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $77 −$75 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
ITF Tokyo: Jumpei Yamasaki vs Jangjun Kim Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $27 +$4 +16%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Martos: Dan Added vs Samuel De Felipe Garcia Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
ITF Martos: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs John Echeverria Jun 11 $22 +$10 +43%
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Mustapha El Natour Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $38 −$10 -27%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $46 −$8 -18%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $38 −$37 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova May 29 $29 −$28 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 29 $29 −$18 -64%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Kutaisi: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Kevin Edengren May 22 $129 −$126 -98%
ITF Maringa: Ezequiel Monferrer vs Nicolas Zanellato May 21 $51 +$78 +152%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $60 −$8 -14%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $139 −$137 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 21 $80 +$179 +223%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 21 $24 −$23 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $27 −$26 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Anna-Lena Friedsam May 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Istanbul: Alafia Ayeni vs Franco Agamenone May 21 $24 −$23 -97%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Alastair Gray May 21 $35 +$35 +99%
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Alex Hernandez May 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Ognjen Milic May 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Francisca Jorge May 20 $34 −$34 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar May 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill May 20 $30 −$16 -52%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Yelyzaveta Kotliar May 20 $53 −$3 -5%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Colton Smith May 20 $25 +$32 +128%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Oceane Dodi May 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $23 −$16 -67%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Panna Udvardy May 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Gabi Boitan May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Kaichi Uchi May 19 $42 −$41 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Diae El Jardi vs Tatjana Maria May 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $40 +$28 +68%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Sean Cuenin vs Hugo Dellien May 19 $71 −$8 -12%
Geneva Open: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Jaume Munar May 19 $76 −$26 -34%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Tereza Martincova vs Camila Osorio May 19 $31 −$30 -97%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Lisa Zaar vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 19 $43 −$35 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $110 17m
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Franziska Sziedat BUY Franziska Sziedat 17¢ $67 1h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi BUY Diae El Jardi 22¢ $61 1h
ITF Dinard: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Lisa Claeys SELL Lisa Claeys 45¢ $128 1h
ITF Dinard: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Lisa Claeys BUY Lisa Claeys 33¢ $98 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Michele Ribecai 31¢ $115 2h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Michele Ribecai 28¢ $5 2h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi SELL Diae El Jardi 38¢ $40 2h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi SELL Diae El Jardi 44¢ $178 2h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi BUY Diae El Jardi 21¢ $90 3h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi BUY Diae El Jardi 19¢ $19 3h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Adrien Burdet 26¢ $17 4h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Adrien Burdet 26¢ $60 4h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman $33 5d
ITF Tokyo: Jumpei Yamasaki vs Jangjun Kim BUY Jumpei Yamasaki 22¢ $32 7d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez SELL Thiago Cigarran 24¢ $32 7d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran 20¢ $22 7d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran 20¢ $5 7d
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Arklon Del Pino BUY Arklon Del Pino 21¢ $20 7d
ITF Martos: Dan Added vs Samuel De Felipe Garcia BUY Samuel De Felipe Garcia $11 7d
ITF Martos: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs John Echeverria SELL Manel Lazaro Juncadella 18¢ $31 7d
ITF Martos: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs John Echeverria BUY Manel Lazaro Juncadella 12¢ $22 7d
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Mustapha El Natour BUY Mustapha El Natour 10¢ $28 7d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Thijs Boogaard 10¢ $28 7d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 13¢ $38 7d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 29¢ $38 7d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 34¢ $46 7d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics $20 7d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $38 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 23¢ $29 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.64 · official $181.64 (match) · 544 history records