Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf967…69cc other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$236 (-8%) realized −$126 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$213
sports 32% −$366
crypto 6% +$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +49.8% +35.6% 34% 34% -18.8%
≤30d 29 +49.8% +35.6% 34% 34% -18.8%
≤90d 29 +49.8% +35.6% 34% 34% -18.8%
all 29 +49.8% +35.6% 34% 34% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.6% 34% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here +22.6% 31% -26.6%
15% +10.7% 31% -33.7%
20% -0.1% 31% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$74 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$638
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $348 $361 +$12 (+4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes 12¢ $250 $147 −$103 (-41%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $150 $130 −$20 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $102 +$14 +13%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $123 −$9 -7%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $267 −$260 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $141 −$137 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $103 +$146 +143%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $31 +$104 +340%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $153 +$161 +105%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $26 +$155 +604%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $41 +$129 +315%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $41 +$106 +258%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 +$37 +121%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$63 -62%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $72 −$56 -78%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 +$55 +531%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $32 +$250 +784%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $71 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $122 7m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 25¢ $116 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 11¢ $114 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 2h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 3h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $103 3h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $92 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $72 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $51 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $17 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $1 3h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 3h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $72 4h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $304 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $61 5h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 36¢ $249 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.20 · official $638.20 (match) · 69 history records