Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F9 0xf967…db11 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$112 (+30%) realized +$111 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Kalshi-fit5%portable

Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$49

7 days+$102

14 days+$109

30 days+$109

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)+19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+29.4%	+17.1%	67%	67%	+34.4%
≤30d	19	+31.6%	+19.0%	68%	68%	+35.3%
≤90d	19	+31.6%	+19.0%	68%	68%	+35.3%
all	19	+31.6%	+19.0%	68%	68%	+35.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.0%	68%	+35.3%
10%	+7.6%	68%	+22.3%
15%	-2.8%	63%	+10.5%
20%	-12.3%	58%	-0.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late +66% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$151

Realized+$111

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage8d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	53¢	53¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$29	+281%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$3	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	+$15	+152%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	+$12	+116%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$41	+$48	+119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	+$5	+46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$6	+57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$8	+54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	−$7	-72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$7	−$7	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$30	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	90¢	$39	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$10	11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	82¢	$22	47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$41	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	91¢	$23	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$15	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	14¢	$3	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$7	6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.81 · official $150.78 (match) · 36 history records