Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf966…bb42 sports 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$322 (-17%) realized −$310 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%12W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$273
sports 43% −$66
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -32.8%
≤30d 69 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -32.8%
≤90d 69 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -32.8%
all 69 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 17% -32.8%
10% -52.1% 14% -39.2%
15% -56.8% 12% -45.1%
20% -61.0% 12% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$448
Realized−$310
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses12 / 57
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions13
Markets (closed)69 / 84
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $85 $82 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $40 $22 −$18 (-45%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 9¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 −$10 -41%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $98 +$25 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$10 -38%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$27 -27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -96%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $15 −$2 -15%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$6 -60%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $46 −$10 -22%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 23 $15 −$8 -52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $81 +$46 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 −$8 -51%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq to score first vs. France? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$11 -83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$12 +22%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $36 +$10 +27%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$15 +302%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 0m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2m
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $15 42m
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 82¢ $123 45m
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 65¢ $98 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 22h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $17 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 24h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $74 45h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 45h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 46h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 6¢ $5 46h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND BUY 4¢ $10 46h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 46h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.63 · official $448.02 (match) · 150 history records