Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf963…55e4 weather 875 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,636 (+1%) realized +$1,664 · open −$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%760W / 21L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day222.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$453
14 days+$1,664
30 days+$1,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$1,462
politics 3% +$34
world 2% −$19
other 1% −$5
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$13
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 478 +3.2% -6.7% 97% 3% -8.9%
≤30d 781 +4.6% -5.3% 97% 4% -8.1%
≤90d 781 +4.6% -5.3% 97% 4% -8.1%
all 781 +4.6% -5.3% 97% 4% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover222.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 4% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 2% -16.9%
15% -22.7% 2% -24.9%
20% -30.2% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.59 per $1 lost it wins $8.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$6,666
Realized+$1,664
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses760 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions92
Markets (closed)781 / 875
History coverage12d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day222.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 92 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $398 $400 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $334 $333 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $303 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $298 $300 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $262 $263 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $195 $196 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $169 $170 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $156 $157 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $155 $155 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $130 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $692 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $228 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $492 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 13? Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 104°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $17 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 5m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $111 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 6m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 6m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 8m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 8m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $40 11m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 12m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 12m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $28 15m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 16m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 16m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $135 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $202 29m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 33m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $36 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,665.78 · official $6,665.81 (match) · 3500 history records