Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf961…54b4
world · 36 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage310d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Aug 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 13 $34 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 13 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $155 August 4–10? Aug 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $3 $0 -10%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 11 $19 +$4 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 11 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 8? Aug 07 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$5
politics 29% −$2
other 17% +$1
sports 6% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $32 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $32 10h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 45h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $37 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $37 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $6 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $8 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $14 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $37 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $37 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $27 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $30 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 7d
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 301d
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 301d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -9.5%
all 35 -4.4% -13.5% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -9.5%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.31 · official $12.31 (match) · 145 history records