Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf961…259c weather 516 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+0%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%457W / 53L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$11
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$149
other 0% −$47
sports 0% +$41
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +5.4% -4.7% 50% 30% -8.8%
≤30d 368 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 510 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 3% -9.4%
all 510 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses457 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)510 / 516
History coverage64d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +22%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$39 +189%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $123 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $151 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $445 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $307 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $916 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $729 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 81°F or below on June 9? Jun 09 $136 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 09 $665 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $606 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 08 $3,469 −$115 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $1,493 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on June 7? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $7,145 +$7 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $137 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 96¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.92 · official $316.92 (match) · 1628 history records