Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf95e…53ff
sports · 131 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$803 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,348 · open +$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$658
Realized−$1,348
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses67 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$680
Open positions4
Markets (closed)127 / 131
History coverage248d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 4 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,134
7 days−$1,285
14 days−$804
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 63¢ 66¢ $616 $650 +$34 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 58¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 59¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 44¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) G2 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 26¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 37¢ 0¢ $467 $0 −$467 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 49¢ 0¢ $945 $0 −$945 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $91 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $497 −$8 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,693 −$470 -18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $501 +$698 +139%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $322 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $177 −$21 -12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +56%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 13 $524 +$579 +110%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $948 −$945 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $625 +$873 +140%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $210 +$122 +58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$3 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $668 −$156 -23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $530 −$530 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,588 −$1,358 -86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $340 +$160 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$140 +729%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$5 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $98 −$10 -10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $228 +$82 +36%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $320 −$271 -84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $579 −$369 -64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $503 −$503 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $29 +$23 +82%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $322 +$326 +102%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $219 +$34 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $967 +$532 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $342 +$13 +4%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $133 +$33 +25%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $626 +$411 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,483 +$610 +18%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +73%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $164 +$16 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $360 +$10 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $260 +$20 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $487 +$325 +67%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,728 +$1,077 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$2,202
other 6% +$888
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 80¢ $12 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $95 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $63 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $60 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $100 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $91 4h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $19 4h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 63¢ $74 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 54¢ $477 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $42 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $50 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $368 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 49¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -6.8% -15.6% 51% 32% -13.3%
≤30d 75 -2.8% -12.0% 53% 35% -11.2%
≤90d 75 -2.8% -12.0% 53% 35% -11.2%
all 127 +11.0% +0.4% 53% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 40% -11.6%
10% -9.2% 36% -20.0%
15% -18.0% 33% -27.8%
20% -26.0% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.44 · official $658.44 (match) · 1028 history records