Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf95e…f351 other 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$59
sports 24% −$15
politics 9% −$8
crypto 6% −$4
culture 6% −$5
economics 5% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 88 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.3% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage131d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $365 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $451 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $348 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $279 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $121 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $29 29m
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 3h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 4h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $29 6h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $29 8h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2 9h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 11h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $29 13h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 15h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 17h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 18h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 19h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 23h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 26h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 30h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 35h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 37h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 38h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $29 40h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 41h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $29 43h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $29 45h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 45h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1475 history records