Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf95e…5e15 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 20% +$2
politics 12% $0
culture 10% +$7
sports 8% +$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.6% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 0% -9.3%
all 34 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -8.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.91 per $1 lost it wins $5.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage308d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $86 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $47 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $16 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $7 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $20 $0 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? Oct 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025 Oct 24 $8 $0 -6%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $41 +$8 +18%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 21 $28 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 24 $20 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $53 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $44 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $53 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $20 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $47 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $47 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $47 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $17 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $16 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 51¢ $53 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.46 · official $52.46 (match) · 85 history records