Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F9 0xf95c…619a sports 318 markets active 2h ago coverage 830d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$203 (+3%) realized +$212 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%96W / 138L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$23
14 days−$12
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$44
other 30% −$4
politics 17% −$21
world 7% +$217
culture 2% −$3
finance 1% +$11
tech 1% +$36
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +15.5% +4.5% 55% 49% +4.0%
≤30d 182 +27.4% +15.3% 43% 37% +16.0%
≤90d 186 +26.2% +14.2% 43% 38% +12.7%
all 234 +20.8% +9.3% 41% 35% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 35% -7.4%
10% -1.1% 29% -16.3%
15% -10.7% 26% -24.4%
20% -19.5% 20% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

830d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses96 / 138
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions83
Markets (closed)234 / 318
History coverage830d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+111%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 39¢ 62¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 78¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+28%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 31¢ 54¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+74%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 83¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No 19¢ 17¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 58¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 58¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 79¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 72¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 73¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 54¢ 73¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +120%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $8 +$6 +68%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -37%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $4 +$3 +74%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$3 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +73%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$7 +143%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$6 -87%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +59%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 46¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 3¢ $1 6h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $1 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 43¢ $2 6h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 42¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $1 8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 37¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 11h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $1 13h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 38¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $1 13h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 59¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $2 16h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 16h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 40¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.30 · official $275.59 (match) · 922 history records