Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf95b…af91 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$702 (-61%) realized −$804 · open +$102
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$438
other 38% −$38
crypto 11% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -79.8% -81.7% 5% 5% -79.7%
≤30d 20 -79.8% -81.7% 5% 5% -79.7%
≤90d 20 -79.8% -81.7% 5% 5% -79.7%
all 20 -79.8% -81.7% 5% 5% -79.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.7% 5% -79.7%
10% -83.5% 5% -81.7%
15% -85.1% 5% -83.4%
20% -86.5% 5% -85.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$45 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized−$804
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $97 $133 +$36 (+37%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 14¢ 34¢ $48 $116 +$67 (+139%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $48 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $50 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$152 +304%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $70 −$68 -96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $200 −$194 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.24 · official $326.14 · 25 history records