Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf954…8b19 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$242 (+1%) realized +$238 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%36W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$70
finance 20% +$113
other 13% +$10
economics 10% +$15
politics 4% +$22
tech 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.0% -1.4% 100% 50% +2.0%
≤30d 5 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 20% -6.2%
≤90d 10 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 10% -7.4%
all 36 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -8.6%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,008) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$1,192
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses36 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage227d
Avg bet$604
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $908 $912 +$4 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $280 $280 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 21 $189 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $479 +$84 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $642 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $1,196 +$8 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $306 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $306 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $610 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 29 $609 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $591 +$18 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $1,008 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $55 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $2,102 +$13 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $959 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of February? Feb 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? Feb 26 $1,058 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 22 $1,053 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on February 9? Feb 11 $1,051 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $1,033 +$7 +1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 15 $1,011 +$22 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 04 $492 +$8 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $506 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $502 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $479 +$13 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $496 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $480 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $957 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 12? Nov 12 $956 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on November 10? Nov 11 $1,730 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9? Nov 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 November 3-9? Nov 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 November 3-9? Nov 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 7? Nov 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 November 3-9? Nov 08 $793 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $280 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $50 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $119 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $908 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $563 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,191.64 · official $1,191.37 (match) · 212 history records