Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf952…923b
other · 84 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$165
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage468d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 2 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $180 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $123 +$7 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $156 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $164 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $89 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $46 −$19 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $29 −$1 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $936 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $936 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $937 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $1,064 +$4 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,860 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $1,028 −$4 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 09 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $27 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$19
world 31% −$8
politics 14% +$1
economics 12% −$4
sports 1% −$7
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $166 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $182 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $180 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $130 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $123 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $55 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $55 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $158 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $17 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $147 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $164 3d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $89 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 46d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $81 48d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 48d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $69 48d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 49d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 49d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 49d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 49d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 50d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 18 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 0% -9.7%
all 82 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.01 · official $165.00 (match) · 273 history records