Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf94f…8a8e world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$2
other 12% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 8% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 100% +0.5%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 12% -8.9%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 12% -8.9%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 10% -8.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage459d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 15 $0 $0 -50%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 21 $9 $0 +5%
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $10 $0 -5%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $8 +$1 +19%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $1 $0 +17%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $9 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 23h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $16 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $17 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $35 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $35 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.66 · official $36.66 (match) · 95 history records