Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf94f…0cc8 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,915 (+15%) realized +$1,896 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 70L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$966
7 days+$96
14 days−$89
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$981
sports 25% −$269
crypto 20% −$846
world 6% +$1,205
culture 1% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -52.0% -56.6% 26% 26% -8.5%
≤30d 72 -42.4% -47.8% 28% 28% -10.8%
≤90d 91 -26.2% -33.3% 31% 30% -2.8%
all 99 -27.1% -34.1% 29% 28% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 28% -2.2%
10% -40.4% 28% -11.5%
15% -46.1% 26% -20.1%
20% -51.4% 20% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$54 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,202
Realized+$1,896
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions9
Markets (closed)99 / 108
History coverage112d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $380 $378 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $103 $141 +$38 (+37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $98 $112 +$14 (+14%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 31¢ 35¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $99 $82 −$17 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $102 $80 −$22 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $207 +$188 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $932 −$96 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 +$99 +64%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $112 +$88 +78%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $151 +$49 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $252 +$100 +40%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$204 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,384 +$682 +49%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $961 +$439 +46%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$38 +38%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $631 +$569 +90%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $200 +$75 +38%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 −$103 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $16 +$34 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $181 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $444 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $211 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 54¢ $52 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,201.72 · official $1,201.60 (match) · 227 history records