Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf94e…b4d1 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$30
politics 16% −$5
economics 5% −$2
world 4% −$1
sports 2% −$27
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 108 -4.9% -13.9% 7% 6% -9.7%
all 108 -4.9% -13.9% 7% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 6% -9.7%
10% -22.2% 6% -18.4%
15% -29.7% 6% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage90d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $355 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $388 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $369 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $301 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $277 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $295 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $306 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $286 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $874 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $305 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $306 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $291 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $288 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $280 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $279 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $307 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $831 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 22h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 24h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $76 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $188 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 19d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 20d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 20d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 22d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $51 29d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $51 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.95 · official $310.95 (match) · 315 history records