Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf94d…eab1 world 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%48W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$2
14 days+$11
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$6
other 18% +$5
politics 16% $0
sports 10% −$3
economics 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 77 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 5% -9.2%
all 106 -1.7% -11.0% 45% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -9.3%
10% -19.5% 4% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses48 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage539d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $75 +$5 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $53 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $53 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $47 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $32 −$5 -16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $50 −$8 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 +$17 +38%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $82 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +33%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $60 −$4 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $90 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $42 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $17 −$6 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $38 +$4 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $22 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $107 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $6 $0 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $54 4m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $54 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $54 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $53 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $38 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $23 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $10 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $53 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $53 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $25 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records