Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf949…130d other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$98
sports 43% −$135
world 7% +$36
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 52% -13.5%
≤30d 21 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 52% -13.5%
≤90d 21 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 52% -13.5%
all 21 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 52% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 52% -13.5%
10% -15.3% 52% -21.8%
15% -23.5% 38% -29.3%
20% -31.0% 33% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$41 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage51d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $150 $164 +$14 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 32¢ 74¢ $25 $57 +$32 (+128%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 63¢ 73¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $105 +$34 +32%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$4 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37 −$16 -44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$23 +70%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $65 +$36 +56%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $114 +$35 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 −$26 -69%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $75 +$25 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$24 +64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 +$60 +113%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$15 -40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$22 +42%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$36 +136%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$18 +170%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$21 -70%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$45 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $52 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $53 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $32 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $35 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $53 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $26 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $38 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $38 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.95 · official $332.41 (match) · 60 history records