Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf949…80e0 world 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$222 (+7%) realized +$223 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%86W / 79L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$60
14 days+$70
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$227
weather 14% +$43
other 6% −$34
finance 4% −$34
politics 1% −$17
economics 1% −$6
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% −$9
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +41.4% +28.0% 54% 35% -3.1%
≤30d 118 +7.9% -2.4% 47% 37% -5.2%
≤90d 165 +8.9% -1.5% 52% 42% -1.9%
all 165 +8.9% -1.5% 52% 42% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 42% -1.9%
10% -10.9% 35% -11.2%
15% -19.5% 25% -19.8%
20% -27.4% 19% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$223
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses86 / 79
Open positions22
Markets (closed)165 / 187
History coverage78d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 82¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 3¢ 17¢ $5 $24 +$19 (+421%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 73¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 83¢ 69¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -88%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $29 +$2 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $5 +$46 +970%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $9 +$19 +226%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 −$15 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $86 +$5 +6%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 +$1 +17%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $72 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +58%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 12 $23 +$22 +96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$12 +1080%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +233%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $41 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $24 −$15 -64%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -53%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 11 $20 −$11 -56%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 11 $9 −$4 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $37 +$3 +7%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +64%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +183%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $37 +$14 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 09 $2 $0 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 85¢ $23 20m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 22m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $59 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $67 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $11 13h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $10 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 13¢ $4 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $13 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $22 22h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $5 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 41¢ $50 25h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $24 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $4 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $7 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $4 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $8 35h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $17 35h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $2 35h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 35h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $48 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.63 · official $288.64 (match) · 647 history records