Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf945…6c15 crypto 542 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$240 (+3%) realized +$263 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%311W / 227L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$23
14 days+$129
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$202
other 39% +$38
crypto 15% −$35
world 1% −$16
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +7.5% -2.8% 56% 47% -11.3%
≤30d 142 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 44% -8.5%
≤90d 367 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 44% -7.6%
all 538 +1.7% -7.9% 58% 49% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 49% -7.2%
10% -16.8% 39% -16.1%
15% -24.8% 31% -24.2%
20% -32.2% 21% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$263
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses311 / 227
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)538 / 542
History coverage108d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 32¢ $55 $33 −$23 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $17 +$28 +166%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 +$12 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $16 +$25 +156%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $23 −$8 -36%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $12 +$11 +97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +123%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$22 -77%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $45 +$45 +99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$46 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$23 -54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $57 −$14 -25%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 +$2 +3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $151 −$95 -63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$4 +77%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $135 +$15 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $128 +$27 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $82 +$25 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$5 -45%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$21 +42%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $39 +$35 +90%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $56 +$26 +47%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $6 $0 -4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $50 +$4 +8%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $44 +$7 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $56 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams BUY 15¢ $13 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Canada vs. Qatar: O BUY 32¢ $20 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL 87¢ $44 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY 32¢ $17 30h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY 26¢ $21 43h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $76 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $42 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $15 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $23 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $12 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $16 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $90 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $90 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $45 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $43 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $47.64 · 1316 history records