Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf945…c787 crypto 1106 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,382 (-6%) realized −$3,382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%571W / 535L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,396
world 1% +$165
other 1% −$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 167 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 44% -1.4%
≤90d 905 -11.6% -20.0% 52% 50% -19.4%
all 1106 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 50% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 50% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 45% -26.6%
15% -34.2% 39% -33.7%
20% -40.7% 32% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$42 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses571 / 535
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1106 / 1106
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1106 Trades
no open positions (133 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $227 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $269 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $124 +$104 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$18 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $228 +$181 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $47 +$34 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$42 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $517 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $232 +$193 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$41 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$31 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records