Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf93f…f94b sports 471 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 245d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80,826 (-16%) realized −$77,834 · open −$2,992
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%170W / 292L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,086per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$1,773est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$16,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,085
7 days+$1,729
14 days−$13,799
30 days−$25,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$70,398
other 8% −$6,942
crypto 1% −$5,191
culture 0% −$2,500
politics 0% +$758
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.0% -17.7% 33% 33% -4.6%
≤30d 59 -51.1% -55.8% 20% 20% -39.8%
≤90d 160 -3.9% -13.1% 34% 34% -28.7%
all 462 -7.5% -16.3% 37% 36% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 36% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 36% -31.9%
15% -31.6% 36% -38.5%
20% -38.3% 35% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,175) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,233 vs −$996 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$16,581
Realized−$77,834
Unrealized−$2,992
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses170 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,773
Open positions9
Markets (closed)462 / 471
History coverage246d ⚠
Avg bet$1,086
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9,478 $9,777 +$299 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 36¢ 22¢ $4,680 $2,795 −$1,885 (-40%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 42¢ 47¢ $1,680 $1,880 +$200 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,134 −$366 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $495 $490 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 34¢ $1,020 $255 −$765 (-75%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $90 $112 +$22 (+25%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 19¢ $570 $90 −$480 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $60 $48 −$12 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 242 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $430 +$1,570 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,527 +$2,473 +98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $835 +$634 +76%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $871 −$850 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $247 −$242 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $2,787 −$2,768 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,885 +$3,115 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3,086 +$1,914 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,773 −$5,710 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 10 $826 −$810 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 10 $160 −$156 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,430 −$1,400 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 10 $538 −$525 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $450 −$440 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $395 +$1,247 +315%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5,864 +$7,536 +128%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $832 −$820 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 09 $426 −$420 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 09 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,946 −$1,914 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $601 −$600 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $881 −$880 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 06 $840 −$840 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 06 $560 −$560 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 06 $513 −$513 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 05 $2,237 −$2,200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $912 −$900 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $855 −$840 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 03 $804 −$800 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $1,508 +$2,492 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $3,745 −$3,689 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $3,294 −$3,245 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,457 +$1,043 +72%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $1,070 −$1,060 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $2,168 +$2,041 +94%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $1,916 −$1,909 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,762 +$1,238 +70%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 24 $901 −$880 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,131 −$1,110 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) May 23 $91 −$89 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $314 −$310 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $3,253 −$3,220 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 20 $909 −$903 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 19 $497 −$490 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $1,010 −$990 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $1,177 9m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $1,885 49m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $564 12h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $6 12h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $1,040 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $1,702 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $975 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $430 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $206 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $94 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $101 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $104 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,468 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $835 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $1,552 38h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $871 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $247 42h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $223 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $570 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $91 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $3,086 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 37¢ $1,885 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $20 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $8 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,581.38 · official $16,581.38 (match) · 3500 history records