Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf93f…684a other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$6
other 40% −$5
economics 8% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$966) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,265
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage81d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,234 $1,234 −$1 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Jun 22 $1,216 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $978 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $943 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 03 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 3m
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 13m
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 22m
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 31m
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $17 37m
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,189 44m
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $857 52m
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $358 1h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,216 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $79 41d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $79 41d
Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 41d
Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 41d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 41d
Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 41d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 41d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 41d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 65d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 65d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL No 100¢ $35 65d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 65d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY No 100¢ $35 65d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 66d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $60 66d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $28 66d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $955 66d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $22 66d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,265.17 · official $1,265.17 (match) · 78 history records