Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf93e…fa51 crypto 236 markets active 3d ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,239 (-15%) realized −$4,239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%83W / 153L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$484
14 days−$484
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$3,930
sports 6% +$282
other 4% −$616
politics 0% −$77
economics 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 46% -20.6%
≤30d 39 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 46% -20.6%
≤90d 39 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 46% -20.6%
all 236 -27.1% -34.1% 35% 33% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 33% -24.2%
10% -40.4% 31% -31.4%
15% -46.1% 29% -38.0%
20% -51.4% 25% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$98 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses83 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage288d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $205 −$198 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $69 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $69 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $197 −$190 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$77 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $282 −$270 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $266 −$255 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $140 +$125 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $67 +$66 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$49 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $108 +$77 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $190 +$92 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $123 +$66 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $259 +$150 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $170 +$86 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $243 −$235 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $140 +$103 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$211 +154%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $243 −$69 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $93 +$65 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $130 +$129 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$63 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 28 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 28 $97 +$78 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 28 $50 +$47 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 28 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 28 $17 +$14 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 962 history records