Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf93d…fc9b sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,141 (-2%) realized −$2,931 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%92W / 95L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$667per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2,062est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$904
7 days+$2,494
14 days+$59
30 days−$1,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,796
other 1% +$59
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +35.8% +22.8% 68% 64% +7.6%
≤30d 70 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 47% -11.9%
≤90d 173 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 47% -11.5%
all 187 +3.8% -6.1% 49% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 47% -12.6%
10% -15.1% 45% -21.0%
15% -23.3% 41% -28.6%
20% -30.8% 31% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$862) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$379 vs −$414 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1,354
Realized−$2,931
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses92 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2,062
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage96d
Avg bet$667
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 51¢ 52¢ $1,000 $1,025 +$25 (+3%)
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jay Clarke 66¢ 38¢ $564 $329 −$235 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $968 −$950 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $1,925 +$955 +50%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $457 −$450 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $1,152 +$1,133 +98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $903 +$430 +48%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $445 +$459 +103%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,117 −$673 -60%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1,116 −$1,103 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $277 +$189 +68%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $811 +$340 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $601 +$683 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $264 +$288 +109%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $205 +$795 +388%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $502 +$219 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $285 −$280 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $134 +$155 +116%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $148 −$108 -73%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $704 −$110 -16%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $277 +$309 +112%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $248 +$79 +32%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $476 +$2 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $333 +$131 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $595 −$199 -34%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $82 −$81 -99%
Libema Open, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs James McCabe Jun 06 $2,463 −$2,436 -99%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $2,849 −$390 -14%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 06 $2,017 +$838 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $862 +$1,155 +134%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $1,011 −$150 -15%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic Jun 05 $273 −$68 -25%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 05 $1,119 −$1,103 -99%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $165 +$108 +66%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $44 +$51 +116%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $94 +$119 +126%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $194 −$80 -41%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $56 +$68 +121%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $650 −$175 -27%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $236 −$232 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $305 −$68 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $291 −$288 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $215 −$211 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $1,173 −$83 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $179 +$323 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $820 −$17 -2%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Alejandro Moro Canas May 26 $294 +$72 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $296 −$28 -9%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $366 −$19 -5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $362 +$300 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $355 −$293 -83%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $384 +$145 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 66¢ $570 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke SELL Christopher OConnell 39¢ $569 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 60¢ $901 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 37¢ $968 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $1,948 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $931 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic 53¢ $931 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $994 18h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 51¢ $1,015 18h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 45¢ $457 19h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $2,285 19h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 50¢ $1,152 21h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Jenson Brooksby 100¢ $1,334 21h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 67¢ $903 22h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 99¢ $904 22h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $445 23h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 24¢ $444 23h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 58¢ $1,117 24h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 60¢ $1,116 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Martin Landaluce 100¢ $466 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 59¢ $277 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 81¢ $1,151 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 56¢ $811 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $1,284 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $553 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $601 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $264 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 20¢ $205 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $502 4d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 46¢ $285 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,353.91 · official $1,353.91 (match) · 385 history records