Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf93d…8b84 other 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$287 (+5%) realized +$179 · open +$108
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 44L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$97
sports 31% −$30
world 9% +$99
politics 6% −$16
economics 5% +$67
crypto 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.3% -24.3% 0% 0% -25.2%
≤30d 10 -24.0% -31.3% 20% 20% -34.1%
≤90d 62 -11.3% -19.7% 32% 29% -7.9%
all 66 -11.4% -19.8% 33% 30% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 30% -7.6%
10% -27.5% 26% -16.4%
15% -34.5% 18% -24.5%
20% -40.9% 15% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$19 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$1,211
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 44
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions15
Markets (closed)66 / 81
History coverage630d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 56¢ 71¢ $250 $317 +$67 (+27%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $200 $257 +$57 (+28%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 78¢ 48¢ $90 $55 −$35 (-39%)
Pedri: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 57¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+148%)
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 48¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+45%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 46¢ 26¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $1 $3 +$2 (+188%)
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $102 −$6 -6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $124 −$33 -26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 +$7 +226%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $81 −$30 -37%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 −$26 -86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fr May 15 $103 −$41 -40%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $52 −$6 -12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $381 +$40 +10%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $33 −$32 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $31 +$127 +414%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $111 +$34 +31%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $20 +$2 +11%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $97 −$27 -28%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $25 −$3 -10%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $15 −$1 -8%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $200 +$61 +30%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $61 +$22 +37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $30 +$29 +97%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $46 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 04 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 04 $105 −$11 -10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $71 −$8 -11%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer May 04 $85 −$39 -46%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $31 +$172 +559%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $92 −$60 -66%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 04 $51 +$4 +8%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 04 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 03 $33 −$2 -7%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 24m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 44¢ $95 1h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $91 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 16d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $45 20d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 22d
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $30 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 22d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 40¢ $41 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? SELL No 50¢ $48 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 51¢ $51 22d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $51 22d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? SELL No $4 28d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 57¢ $30 29d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 61¢ $71 29d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 45¢ $51 29d
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fr SELL No 20¢ $21 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $99 30d
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fr SELL No 26¢ $1 31d
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fr SELL No 26¢ $40 32d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 32d
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 32d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $46 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,210.94 · official $1,235.75 · 228 history records