Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf93a…8a46 sports 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,742 (-7%) realized −$1,742 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%143W / 154L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$81
14 days−$1,340
30 days−$1,464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,575
politics 11% +$181
other 11% −$100
crypto 6% −$336
world 5% +$1
economics 3% −$38
tech 1% −$6
weather 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +34.4% +21.6% 60% 60% -26.7%
≤30d 74 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 49% -31.0%
≤90d 194 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 40% -20.6%
all 297 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 43% -15.6%
10% -19.2% 39% -23.7%
15% -27.0% 34% -31.0%
20% -34.2% 28% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$41 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,742
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses143 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage699d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$44 +98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $99 −$55 -56%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $122 −$121 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +84%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $34 +$29 +86%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 20 $38 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$17 +87%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $44 −$24 -54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $18 +$25 +137%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $224 −$172 -77%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $726 −$662 -91%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $1,001 −$426 -42%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $502 −$186 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $63 −$56 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $36 −$29 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $41 −$22 -52%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $68 −$24 -35%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $203 −$132 -65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $98 +$65 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$98 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $20 −$11 -53%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $56 −$35 -63%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $37 +$18 +49%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $18 +$19 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $53 +$31 +60%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 05 $4 −$2 -43%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -17%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 05 $30 −$7 -23%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $70 −$69 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $35 −$7 -20%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $34 +$26 +78%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $46 −$45 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $50 +$42 +84%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $61 +$58 +95%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 04 $44 +$36 +82%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $23 +$19 +82%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $20 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $35 +$29 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $56 −$23 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $60 −$1 -2%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $24 +$17 +70%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $51 +$41 +80%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $60 −$13 -21%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $60 +$50 +84%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 −$3 -64%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $56 +$49 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH 28¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH 38¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 64¢ $99 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) BUY FURIA 66¢ $62 19h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) BUY FURIA 66¢ $60 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $34 41h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 50¢ $34 42h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $38 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $37 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $20 44h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 41¢ $18 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $52 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $154 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $70 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 6¢ $64 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $314 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $412 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 37¢ $10 9d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta SELL NRG 36¢ $575 13d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 61¢ $1,001 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 730 history records