Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf938…57b8 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$487 (+12%) realized +$467 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$856now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$52
14 days−$132
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$154
politics 11% +$1
other 5% +$8
tech 4% +$38
finance 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.3% -2.0% 89% 78% -4.2%
≤30d 23 -10.0% -18.6% 65% 48% -13.5%
≤90d 30 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 40% -13.4%
all 30 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 40% -13.4%
10% -24.2% 17% -21.7%
15% -31.5% 10% -29.3%
20% -38.3% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$34 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$856
Realized+$467
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage40d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $330 $326 −$4 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 82¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 65¢ 67¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $380 +$28 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $81 +$13 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 16 $181 +$42 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $450 −$118 -26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $51 +$17 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $50 +$19 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $150 +$66 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $200 −$150 -75%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$8 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $640 +$46 +7%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $50 −$50 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $60 −$20 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $35 −$4 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $31 −$5 -16%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $70 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $70 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $70 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $70 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $70 18h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $378 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $50 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 42h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $63 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $131 2d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $223 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $698 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $50 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $50 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $50 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $50 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $69 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 82¢ $50 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 74¢ $51 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $50 6d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $50 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $50 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $49 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $49 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.30 · official $856.71 (match) · 177 history records