Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf937…7126 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
world 35% −$3
sports 10% +$6
politics 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.2% 14% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 14 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -10.2%
all 36 -3.0% -12.2% 25% 3% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -12.5%
10% -20.6% 3% -20.9%
15% -28.3% 0% -28.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage302d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $66 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $68 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $7 −$1 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $34 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $94 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $54 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $19 +$6 +30%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $28 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $27 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in October? Oct 24 $3 $0 -11%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 -5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 20 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.44 · official $35.30 (match) · 215 history records