Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F9 0xf932…23de crypto 394 markets active 1d ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$785 (-13%) realized −$785 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate38%151W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$134
14 days−$129
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$568
other 2% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -12.7% -21.0% 46% 40% -18.6%
≤30d 124 -12.6% -20.9% 38% 30% -19.4%
≤90d 394 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 21% -18.0%
all 394 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 21% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 21% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 13% -25.9%
15% -37.3% 11% -33.0%
20% -43.4% 10% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$785
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses151 / 243
Open positions0
Markets (closed)394 / 394
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 394 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$33 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $44 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $43 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$23 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $56 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $79 −$36 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$26 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $91 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$18 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records