Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf92d…8162 world 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%26W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$3
other 28% −$1
politics 23% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 -0.1% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses26 / 79
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage347d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $31 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $66 −$2 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $63 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $176 −$3 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $49 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $4 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $35 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $71 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $25 55m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $25 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $32 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $31 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 20¢ $14 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 20¢ $14 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $33 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $33 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $0 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $0.00 · 390 history records