Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf92a…2587 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +7.6% -2.7% 44% 41% +12.9%
≤30d 55 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 42% -4.3%
≤90d 55 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 42% -4.3%
all 55 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 42% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 42% -4.3%
10% -24.7% 38% -13.5%
15% -31.9% 33% -21.8%
20% -38.6% 27% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage14d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$106 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$19 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$61 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$36 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$24 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records