Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf929…9c10 crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+2%) realized +$180 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 62L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$19
sports 42% +$142
crypto 15% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 129 -11.5% -20.0% 52% 39% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 39% -5.0%
10% -27.6% 28% -14.1%
15% -34.6% 16% -22.4%
20% -41.0% 12% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -179% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$28 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 62
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage202d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India India 59¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $90 −$45 -50%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $19 −$10 -53%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Mar 26 $10 −$7 -74%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Mar 22 $186 −$18 -9%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 22 $154 −$49 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 17 $30 −$23 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 17 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 17 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 17 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 17 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 17 $6 +$2 +31%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 17 $98 −$38 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 17 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 17 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 17 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 17 $130 +$7 +5%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Mar 17 $79 −$42 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 20m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL India 11¢ $10 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 59¢ $101 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 46¢ $46 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 69¢ $69 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 51¢ $100 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 73¢ $147 1h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 40¢ $24 14d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 45¢ $44 14d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 66¢ $36 14d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 66¢ $16 14d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 65¢ $13 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 15¢ $7 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 6¢ $8 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 9¢ $8 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 6¢ $4 56d
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings BUY Quetta Gladiators 54¢ $2 93d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 4¢ $2 93d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 15¢ $10 96d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 0¢ $5 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $25 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 13¢ $23 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 24¢ $27 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 24¢ $1 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 24¢ $36 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 22¢ $32 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 18¢ $75 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 28¢ $21 98d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 20¢ $23 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.75 · official $11.75 (match) · 539 history records