Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf928…4ae7 crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+0%) realized +$306 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%205W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,219per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$10
14 days+$22
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$295
other 1% +$1
tech 1% +$2
politics 1% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 90 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 211 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,835) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×131.07 per $1 lost it wins $131.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1,994
Realized+$306
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses205 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage239d
Avg bet$1,219
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,995 $1,994 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,967 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,990 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,988 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,986 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,984 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,982 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,980 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,979 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $701 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,274 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,973 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,677 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,967 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,965 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,964 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,962 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 5? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 5? Jun 05 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 5? Jun 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $360 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,448 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,956 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,946 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,953 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 27? May 27 $1,950 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 26? May 26 $1,948 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1,943 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $1,940 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,938 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,936 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,934 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,932 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,931 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,929 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 14? May 14 $1,926 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,924 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $437 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 11? May 11 $1,486 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 10 $1,921 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 9? May 09 $1,919 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,917 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 7? May 07 $1,776 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 7? May 07 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 5? May 06 $719 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 5? May 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5? May 05 $1,023 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,967 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $25 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,700 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $250 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,988 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,930 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $56 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,984 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,982 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,980 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,979 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,274 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $701 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,973 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,400 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $294 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,677 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,967 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $1,965 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,964 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,962 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $509 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $149 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $98 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,143 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $60 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,448 22d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $150 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $360 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,994.49 · official $1,994.49 (match) · 476 history records