Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf921…be16 crypto 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,738 (-9%) realized −$1,738 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%43W / 93L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days+$47
14 days−$325
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2,445
other 2% +$187
finance 2% +$11
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$41
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +96.6% +77.9% 25% 12% -5.2%
≤30d 41 +28.9% +16.6% 44% 27% -11.2%
≤90d 65 +2.7% -7.1% 32% 18% -19.8%
all 136 +8.1% -2.2% 32% 21% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 21% -19.9%
10% -11.6% 18% -27.6%
15% -20.1% 15% -34.6%
20% -27.9% 14% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$51 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,738
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses43 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage126d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 22 $290 −$95 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 22 $182 −$31 -17%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 21 $0 $0 -66%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 18 $88 −$24 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $373 +$19 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$179 +1011%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $270 −$140 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 11 $427 −$107 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $309 −$54 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 10 $721 −$78 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $368 −$24 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 08 $103 −$32 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $101 −$2 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $103 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $102 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $53 +$77 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8PM ET Jun 08 $403 −$35 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $544 −$136 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $785 +$57 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $264 −$43 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12AM ET Jun 07 $55 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$29 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $80 +$4 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 04 $400 +$11 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $110 +$291 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 25 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 25 $471 −$100 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $255 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 24 $45 −$23 -51%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 24 $79 +$7 +9%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 23 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $74 +$75 +101%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 23 $72 −$23 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10? May 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 03 $159 −$54 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 03 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Solana dip to $70 April 27-May 3? May 01 $48 −$43 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $54 −$3 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 26 $73 −$15 -20%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in April? Apr 25 $49 −$32 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 24 $529 −$90 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $66 4m
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $101 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $151 6h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $182 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $28 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 11h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 12h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $23 25h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 34h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 34h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 38h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $64 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 71¢ $73 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 72¢ $141 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 763 history records