Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F9 0xf91e…7e0b sports 1575 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$402 (-0%) realized −$418 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%888W / 677L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$802est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,600
other 2% +$251
crypto 0% +$3
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +6.4% -3.8% 58% 58% -2.0%
≤30d 460 +1.9% -7.8% 54% 53% -8.1%
≤90d 1236 +3.4% -6.5% 56% 55% -6.5%
all 1565 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 55% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 55% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 52% -16.4%
15% -24.7% 45% -24.5%
20% -32.1% 37% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$45 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses888 / 677
Est. fees paid−$802
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1565 / 1575
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1565 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 47¢ 60¢ $60 $75 +$16 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $51 +$33 +64%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $95 +$43 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $99 +$69 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $60 +$44 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $49 +$46 +95%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $40 +$66 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $96 −$16 -17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$75 +152%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $24 +$42 +180%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $32 +$21 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$40 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $154 +$33 +21%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $49 +$173 +352%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$38 +41%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $20 +$34 +172%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$40 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $76 −$30 -40%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $98 +$121 +123%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $245 +$69 +28%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $40 +$21 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$21 +83%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$33 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $69 +$41 +60%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $43 +$25 +59%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $87 +$38 +43%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $99 +$18 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $137 +$49 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $50 −$46 -91%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $99 +$34 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $82 +$143 +174%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $82 +$51 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $83 4m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $61 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $168 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $104 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $95 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 77¢ $95 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 38¢ $40 7h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 41¢ $9 7h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 60¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $48 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 4¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $60 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 31¢ $86 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $106 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $40 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $35 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $125 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $50 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 40¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $80 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $66 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $66 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $30 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $24 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $30 33h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $32 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.49 · official $125.49 · 3500 history records