Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf91d…847b crypto 548 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-2%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%497W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$39
sports 1% −$7
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 529 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 12% -11.5%
≤30d 529 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 12% -11.5%
≤90d 548 -1.7% -11.1% 91% 13% -11.7%
all 548 -1.7% -11.1% 91% 13% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 13% -11.7%
10% -19.6% 3% -20.1%
15% -27.3% 2% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses497 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)548 / 548
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 548 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1175 history records