Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf91c…ddc1 politics 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$3
politics 32% −$7
sports 18% −$3
culture 6% −$1
economics 4% −$2
crypto 3% $0
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.0% -15.0% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 0% -10.0%
all 91 -10.1% -18.6% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -26.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -33.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage371d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1 $0 -21%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $145 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $1 $0 -38%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $102 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $106 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $99 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $50 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $60 $0 -1%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $2 $0 -22%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $49 $0 -1%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $107 −$1 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $2 $0 -11%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $0 $0 -25%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $1 $0 -36%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $2 −$1 -27%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $114 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $98 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Dec 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 14 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 56m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $45 16d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 41d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 112d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 112d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 115d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 115d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 117d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 118d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 118d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 126d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records