Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf917…31d7 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$197 (-7%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$279
7 days−$279
14 days−$279
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$306
crypto 33% +$45
other 8% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -34.2%
≤30d 4 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 25% -16.5%
≤90d 4 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 25% -16.5%
all 4 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 25% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 25% -16.5%
10% -22.7% 0% -24.5%
15% -30.2% 0% -31.8%
20% -37.0% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$308 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage29d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $788 −$308 -39%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $235 +$29 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 25 $1,001 +$45 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $998 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $260 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $96 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $93 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $264 42h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $67 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $174 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records