Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf915…0c01 weather 1583 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-4%) realized −$115 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate74%1137W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$21
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$1
weather 27% −$40
sports 15% −$10
other 12% −$15
politics 5% −$8
world 5% −$8
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 37% -15.4%
≤30d 250 -7.9% -16.6% 63% 38% -14.6%
≤90d 1328 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 40% -13.2%
all 1527 -2.6% -11.8% 74% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 41% -11.4%
10% -20.3% 23% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 15% -27.6%
20% -35.0% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1137 / 390
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions63
Markets (closed)1527 / 1583
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 1527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? No 61¢ 92¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 21¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 76¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 84¢ 24¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 60¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +585%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +162%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +122%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 27m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 2h
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June SELL No 94¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 91¢ $1 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 10h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $2 11h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $2 11h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $1 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 25h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1 26h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 26h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $2 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 39h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.87 · official $115.87 (match) · 3500 history records