Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf913…fd67 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$982 (+14%) realized +$984 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%44W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$983
economics 18% −$1
politics 17% −$1
crypto 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 42 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 44 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.6%
all 48 +2.3% -7.5% 92% 2% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 2% +3.1%
10% -16.3% 2% -6.8%
15% -24.4% 2% -15.8%
20% -31.8% 2% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$1 · ×15.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×347.54 per $1 lost it wins $347.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$984
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses44 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage137d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 25-31? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2AM ET May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 14 $984 +$984 +100%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 11 $2,706 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 6? Feb 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US strike Iraq next? Feb 06 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,199 9d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,200 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $1,287 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,288 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.40 · official $43.40 (match) · 103 history records