Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf912…1a84 world 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%19W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$8
other 22% −$2
sports 20% −$13
politics 19% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.8% -6.1% 25% 25% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 5% -10.5%
≤90d 60 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 2% -10.0%
all 63 -1.9% -11.3% 30% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -10.4%
10% -19.8% 2% -19.0%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage485d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 86¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +17%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $69 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $36 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $3 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $59 −$6 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $67 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $23 −$3 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $38 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $49 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 -7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $3 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $54 $0 -1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 15 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $58 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 8h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $35 31h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $32 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $19 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $13 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.46 · official $33.34 (match) · 283 history records