Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F9 0xf90c…0850 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$107 (+4%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$89
world 8% −$159
other 8% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +30.9% +18.5% 53% 53% -4.6%
≤30d 15 +30.9% +18.5% 53% 53% -4.6%
≤90d 15 +30.9% +18.5% 53% 53% -4.6%
all 15 +30.9% +18.5% 53% 53% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 53% -4.6%
10% +7.1% 53% -13.7%
15% -3.2% 53% -22.1%
20% -12.7% 40% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$136 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $261 −$261 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$67 -33%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$109 +108%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 +$157 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$159 -78%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$273 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $86 +$43 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $200 −$119 -59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 +$200 +100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$102 +250%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $233 +$97 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $136 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $101 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $103 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $44 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $86 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $81 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $261 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $107 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $108 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $17 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $15 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $7 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $84 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records