Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf90a…3bee crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+3%) realized +$62 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate85%35W / 6L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +8.4% -2.0% 85% 41% -6.6%
≤30d 41 +8.4% -2.0% 85% 41% -6.6%
≤90d 41 +8.4% -2.0% 85% 41% -6.6%
all 41 +8.4% -2.0% 85% 41% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 41% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 20% -15.6%
15% -19.9% 12% -23.7%
20% -27.8% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses35 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $79 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$13 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$15 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $23 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.37 (match) · 145 history records